What did you think of the Budget?
So we've had time to digest, and may be even savour, the details of Philip Hammond's Budget.
Most seem to agree that it was a pretty fair and diplomatic attempt to steady the UK ship before it returns to the increasingly choppy Brexit waters.
Only time, and the next election, will tell whether the Chancellor's roll of the dice/rational policy statement has paid off.
Variety of UK sources
So, just to wrap things up, here's a selection of Budgets comments and observations from a variety of eminent UK sources.
Hammond said: "The years of hard work are paying off, the public finances are in better shape, primarily because we are generating jobs in the UK at a fantastic rate.”
His boss, PM Theresa May agreed: “Austerity coming to an end isn’t just about more money into our public services, it’s about more money in people’s pockets as well.”
Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI director-general, called the Budget “rock-solid” and, adopting a Halloween turn of phrase, said it was “bringing more treats than tricks for business”.
Enormous contribution
She said: “It recognises the enormous contribution enterprise has made to balancing the UK’s books through jobs, pay and tax and responds to many of the recommendations that firms have made.”
ICAEW chief Michael Izza reckoned Hammond had been “sensible and safe” saying the budget was a “spending sprinkle, not a spending spree.”
“Philip Hammond faces a lot of challenges including funding of the NHS, national debt, Brexit, and a fractious government, and this is reflected in the lack of major announcements in today’s speech.”
Is austerity over?
Over at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, director Paul Johnson addressed the question "is austerity over?" with these observations:
- There was a big upward revision to overall spending plans;
- Spending on the NHS will rise substantially – though less quickly than spending has risen on average over its 70 year history;
- Total day to day spending on public services is planned to rise by about 8 per cent between now and 2023-24, but spending outside of protected areas is essentially flat – and indeed ticks up next year before falling a bit. It falls ona per capita basis;
- Despite more money for universal credit there are still £4bn or so of net welfare cuts working their way through the system, most obviously with the freeze to the rates of most working age benefits next April;
- Total spending is set to rise in real terms but to fall very slightly as a fraction of national income.
He said: "Does that add up to the end of austerity? On a narrow definition perhaps it does, on wider definitions it doesn’t, at least not yet.
"But whatever the precise definitions this is certainly a considerable easing in spending control and a change of fiscal direction. Any idea that there is a serious desire to eliminate the deficit by the mid 2020s is surely for the birds.
This no bonanza
"This is no bonanza. Many public services are going to feel squeezed for some time to come. Cuts are not about to be reversed.
"If I were a prison governor, a local authority chief executive or a headteacher I would struggle to find much to celebrate. I would be preparing for more difficult years ahead."
Not so for Mike Cherry, chair of the Federation of Small Businesses. It's the “most small business-friendly Budget that this chancellor has delivered”.
Backing small business
“Through the Budget, the chancellor is now using the strength of the Treasury to back small business. We have already seen a significant change of tone in recent months towards helping businesses, right from the top of government, and today represents the change of policy that backs this up.
And Adam Marshall, boss at the British Chambers of Commerce, agreed, saying: “The chancellor has demonstrated that he is listening to business concerns by delivering a Budget that supports investment and growth…
“The chancellor has avoided major increases to business tax to fund the government’s spending priorities, which would have undermined the confidence boost to firms from his commitments to supporting enterprise and growth.”
Living standards of the low paid
Unsurprisingly, Torsten Bell, at the Resolution Foundation, a think tank aiming to improve the living standards of the low-paid, had a slightly different take on matters.
"This Budget was a bigger deal than many expected – with a significant easing of austerity," he said.
"But austerity has not been ended. And there will be tougher choices for chancellors in the years ahead. Public spending will remain tight, living standards are set to be sluggish and the tax rises to meet pressures in the 2020s from our ageing society will still be needed – as and when there’s a government with the majority to deliver them."
Finally, Martin Wolf, the FT's chief economics commentator got to the political heart of the Budget "that the hard work" has paid off and sunny days lie ahead... "This, it is surely clear, is the only platform the Conservatives can credibly use as a basis for appealing to the country for support.
"They cannot argue the economic recovery has been satisfactory, because it has been very far from that. They cannot deny they have imposed a fiscal tightening that a large proportion of the people believe was painful and, in important respects, unfair."
